March 2011 - Critical times ahead for Pakistan

This is in continuation of the picture I built up earlier in this blog, regarding the fate of Pakistan and its general situation in the coming weeks and months. 2011 is sure to be a decisive year, and last night Geo TV's Kamran Khan reported in his programme that the end of February and March 2011 could be extremely critical for the PPP government now in power, and consequently the diseased country in itself. The government is in a quandary, as it is contemplating a 10-15% rise in petroleum product prices in keeping with the recent international rises - which could result in a further 20-25% rise in already high prices; this could cause unrest and upheaval; and if this not done, then the government faces a shortfall of 10-12 billion Rupees in its revenues, in compensation for which it will have to print more currency, leading to inflation....so it is stuck 'twixt the Devil and the deep blue sea.....another, political issue coming to the boil, may be the removal of the ruling PPP from the cabinet of the country's majority province, the Punjab in the next few days. That too could bring on instability.

It must be noted that oil prices have globally risen in response to the Arab crisis, in part because of fears that what is happening in Libya will spill over to other oil-producing countries in the region. Some analysts have predicted $150 a barrel as a possibility; with a crushing knock-out effect for Pakistan........ Inevitably, this will impact global economic recovery after the financial meltdowns of the last decade.

It is no exaggeration to say that we look today at a world undergoing profound change, a change of no less consequence than the breakup of the Soviet Union – and laced with just as many uncertainties. (See my earlier post: Two Decades of an American Global Order; and, The Way the Cookie of the American Global Order will crumble).