I have edited and condensed this note from the important parts of a recent series of four lengthy newspaper articles - by well known Pakistani editor Mohammad Mallick - who wrote them as part of an in-depth news analysis over the space of several days, concerning the current situation that Pakistan now faces, and the inevitable change that it will bring..........and what is likely to happen in that event........he addressed it to the powers-that-be of this country.............it is a useful guide to the kind of situation - if not demise - we can expect for this country, soon......
From the Salman Taseer murder and the Raymond Davis issue, it can be seen that the hold of Pakistan's traditional rulers - the neocolonial, Western client regime that created the country 63 years ago, and has ruled it since - is now effectively over; for this dysfunction, its own corruption and debauched practices are responsible....
Below, Mohammad Mallick discusses the nature and prospects of the inevitable change now facing his country's doomed state establishment - and what its best current "players" can do about it to save their own skins....he identifies these two major players as being the Pakistan Army, and the Judiciary. He discusses the nature of the problem, and how these bastions of Pakistan's old order can react to try and save it from spiralling into anarchy.......
ISLAMABAD: The following situationer is based on exhaustive background interviews with all key power players, including the top civil and military leadership.
(1) OVERVIEW - Can PM Gilani simply reshuffle the deck and stand pat? The answer is an emphatic no. A few new faces may pop up like croakers after a summer rain but the trio that really needs changing will surely continue smirking at the nation. Whatever the ultimate complexion, emptying the cesspool of incompetence and corruption from one end and refilling it from the other offers no panacea for the fundamental problems being faced by the people, and the state itself. The time for such cosmetic touches a la transforming make-ups of ambitious starlets is long gone. Not that this ruling dispensation, seeped in perpetual denial, would have noticed. The need of the hour is for the Zardari-Gilani duo to conduct an honest catharsis of their own, which must lead to their own honest reinvention as selfless leaders. And since that appears to be an unlikely possibility, the next question: where are we going then in the coming weeks, or months? People are wondering if change is now inevitable.
But what change, how, and by whom? Can the absence of early general elections, pave the way for reluctant generals? These are but few of the myriad burning questions.
First, the harrowing economic scenario. That we are already on the precipice of financial ruin is an undeniable reality. Forget about tangible progress. We need to maintain a minimum annual average growth rate of 8% over the next twenty years just to maintain our present dismal standards of poverty, joblessness and economic stagnation. And what has been the annual average growth rate since the present government took over almost three years back? A lowly 2-3 percent. Billions of dollars have been taken out of the country by the wary and watchful investors and business houses. And what is coming in as direct foreign investment? Zilch! The bankruptcy of the national exchequer is only rivalled by the paucity of vision of our ruling leadership which is struggling with borrowed ideas and borrowed money. By September 2010, Pakistan’s public debt stood at Rs9.473 trillion.
Just try adding the zeros and you’ll have a fair idea of our collective zero future, lest drastic measures are taken. Will this trend change? Hardly, considering that during the period July-Sept alone our brilliant financial managers had borrowed a staggering Rs579 billion. Is the government betraying any signs of coming up with an ingenious indigenous independent economic plan? None. Any tangible demo of its intent to change its own free spending ostentatious misgoverning traits? None. Any chance of us being pleasantly shocked by government’s hitherto secret talent of conjuring out-of-box solutions to revive economy and dipped investor confidence? Not a chance in a million, or should one say Rs9.74 trillion......
(2) WHAT IS THE THINKING OF THE ARMY? - So what is the army thinking in all this, anyway? Economics. You read it right the first time, economics. Economy is the mantra of the top army brass. The army leadership is literally scared stiff of the economic scenario and even more so considering that the governor state bank, the finance minister, and other official economic mandarins have been painfully honest in their off the record presentations to the top generals. The armed forces are finding it extremely tough to even finance their standard standing-army operations, let alone go for upgrading their capacity in terms of men or material. And we are not even looking at the crushing burden of fighting a full-scale war both within the country and on our western borders while keeping a tight vigil on the Eastern front.
Their biggest fear is that Pakistan would be rendered irrelevant vis-‡-vis India purely by its economic downslide and that ultimately we could even end up in a position of some former Soviet republics, which were forced to pander their nuclear assets to the west in lieu of the badly needed bread money. On the internal front too, lack of development and rehabilitation in the war zones against terrorism is a big worry for the Khakis. They blame seriously flawed priorities of government as well as the monetary crunch self-induced by mis-governance and corruption. On Pakistan-United States relations, Rawalpindi has serious doubts about the civilian leadership’s ability to even comprehend the enormity of the issue with its bilateral, regional, and global implications let alone the political leadership’s acumen to handle it prudently.
The army commanders are keeping a close watch on everything, starting from big ticket items like Afghanistan and economy to relatively way smaller issues. Just to give one example, a very high powered call was recently made to a baffled MD PIA, who was asked to explain the controversial deal involving selling PIA routes to another airline (to share an aside, his argument didn’t go down well with the caller). But the real alarming part is the overall Khaki assessment of the democratic and civilian assets required for pulling the country out of its current morass.
In the current khaki perception, “there is no hope of betterment from the current leadership”, to quote someone who really matters. And this judgment covered virtually all the national stature politicians. Having gone over the latest political developments including the 45-day deadlines, interim agendas and the government feigning to start reforming its ways etc, I asked this direct question from an extremely pertinent general, “Do you think the current situation will improve and the government will actually reinvent itself? Can you name anyone out of Gilani, Zardari, Nawaz, Asfandyar, or anyone else in the parliament who you think offers any grounds for optimism? None, pat came the response. Does that mean you will have to ultimately step in? was my second question. This time the response came after a long pause, “Army interventions have not really worked in the past and the region’s situation is already very complicated. And for a country that is so heavily reliant on foreign funding, it is not so easy to go against internationally accepted norms etc. No we do not want to have any direct role in the running of the government but the security and interests of the State must also be protected. I think the army would support any democratic alternatives that help steer the country out of this economic and political stalemate”.
When asked if this answer tacitly implied that the army favoured the much talked about concept of a clean ‘professional’ national government fully answerable to the apex court, the only response was a knowing smile. By the way, they may not have much to say for his political acumen, but Imran Khan surely has a lot of senior officers admiring his financial integrity and boldness (read: anti-Americanism) on issues like war on terrorism and his “groom-able leadership qualities”. But how could the Supreme Court approve such a dispensation that visibly has no constitutional backing? One wonders!
(3) THE ARMY AND THE JUDICIARY ARE WHAT MATTER NOW, IN THE END - In the black and white world of the khakis, the buck stops at the desk of the Chief of the Army Staff.........There is extreme institutional concern over the alarming economic and political situation but it would be premature and imprudent to suggest that the Khakis are raring to play a power role to the total exclusion of political elements. But having said that there is clear evidence too of growing institutional pressure to “do something” and of “saving Pakistan first and systems later” on the man already feeling the additional weight of an additional three-year term in office. The kind are presenting this as a God given opportunity to do great things for the army and the country, and the unkind as the price for holding his silence and watching impassively, as the country slides deeper into one despair after another...........
Not a single fundamental has changed nor has any serious attempt been made to address the country’s economic and law and order woes. It is clear to keen strategic observers that the government, the PML-N, and other political power players are indulging in shadow boxing as per rules of engagement specifically designed to ensure mutual sustenance and prolonging of their cushioned stay in power.
The time for games is over. The economy is in ruins. National mood is of resignation and despondency. Food prices are shooting up as much as 20% in one month. Poor are no longer just getting poorer but desperate and hungry. The angry youth is like a volcano waiting to erupt at the slightest provocation, which could come any day. Who knows, even the apprehended unconditional release of Raymond Davis could prove a lit fuse. It’s time for politicians to display a sincerity of purpose and cause a change, or be ready to be consumed by the one coming.
Two viewpoints prevail in terms of strategic thinking. One favours the wait and sees policy which essentially means to allow maximum room to politicians to fix things and when every option stands exhausted to only then help sort matters as the proverbial white knights. The overriding fear, however, appears to be that that point has already been reached and in the event of any more inordinate long delay, the lack of credibility of the rulers will have perpetually isolated us in the comity of nations and even worse, the petering economy may suffer an irreversible stall and thus spell immediate disaster for democracy, institution, and the country itself.
Under the present trying circumstances, the power players would ignore to their own peril the personalities of the two gentlemen, who have personally rejuvenated and reshaped their respective institutions.
One institution is led by a man of impeccable credibility who has already shown that he won’t be taking any prisoners in his open war against corruption and abuse of public office. Neither is he afraid of stepping in whenever the corrupt and incompetent executive abdicated its responsibilities. The other has as its commander, an accomplished strategist who has the patience to reach a chosen destination, on a route of his own charting, in the timing of his own choice. Referring to India he once said that his own preparations were based on the capacity of the other and not on professed intentions. Islamabad takes note.
The chief justice of Pakistan and the Chief of the Armed Forces may live in two separate cities, running two separate worlds, but remain inseparably linked by the common thread of national interest. Are circumstances being created by the criminal follies of our political classes where one may be forced by the force of circumstances to interpret, and the other to implement? The answer, and possibly the change, may come a lot sooner than we all think.
