March 2011 - Critical times ahead for Pakistan

This is in continuation of the picture I built up earlier in this blog, regarding the fate of Pakistan and its general situation in the coming weeks and months. 2011 is sure to be a decisive year, and last night Geo TV's Kamran Khan reported in his programme that the end of February and March 2011 could be extremely critical for the PPP government now in power, and consequently the diseased country in itself. The government is in a quandary, as it is contemplating a 10-15% rise in petroleum product prices in keeping with the recent international rises - which could result in a further 20-25% rise in already high prices; this could cause unrest and upheaval; and if this not done, then the government faces a shortfall of 10-12 billion Rupees in its revenues, in compensation for which it will have to print more currency, leading to inflation....so it is stuck 'twixt the Devil and the deep blue sea.....another, political issue coming to the boil, may be the removal of the ruling PPP from the cabinet of the country's majority province, the Punjab in the next few days. That too could bring on instability.

It must be noted that oil prices have globally risen in response to the Arab crisis, in part because of fears that what is happening in Libya will spill over to other oil-producing countries in the region. Some analysts have predicted $150 a barrel as a possibility; with a crushing knock-out effect for Pakistan........ Inevitably, this will impact global economic recovery after the financial meltdowns of the last decade.

It is no exaggeration to say that we look today at a world undergoing profound change, a change of no less consequence than the breakup of the Soviet Union – and laced with just as many uncertainties. (See my earlier post: Two Decades of an American Global Order; and, The Way the Cookie of the American Global Order will crumble).

***Rich Pakistanis planning to run to UK with their money***

So says a headline in today's "The News International". But mind you, these rich Paki rats won't be able to escape their deserved punishment there in their new British nests, either: the coming global economic catastrophe that many know is just around the corner, and mightier than anything imaginable, will crush them in the UK even......so they will meet the same fate there that they are trying to escape here, only it will be worse, as they will be in a foreign land. It is better to remain and face the odds - bravely, like men, that is if they are men to begin with - in a familiar place, rather than to seek refuge in alien lands.
And if the British think that they will shore up their economy with stolen money - and whistle away while doing it just as they have done in other cases, then they are sorely mistaken. Britain's world power days are long over, and it appears that its secondary power status may soon be over too. So they had better be careful. They have a lot to answer for, as it already is. In the next decade or two, fair Britannia may well find herself trampled under the heels of a new and unfathomed Eurasian force of occupation - under whose administration the British Establishment will be taken to task for all its past international crimes like the one mentioned in the report below that I am now commenting upon. If the United Kingdom of Great Britain has been great and having it good for the past 400 years, that doesn't mean that it will continue forever to be like that. It has just been their good luck, much in the same way as it has been with every empire on Earth. And they might be under the illusion that they are entitled to do as they like because they are invincible, as the Spanish Armada of 1588, Napoleon in 1805 and Hitler in 1940 were unsuccessful in setting foot on the British Isles physically. But I would warn them that things will not always be like that. After all, the Normans, the Vikings, the Saxons and before them the Romans and the Scythians have all had their turns at subduing and transforming Perfidious Albion successfully.....it is just a matter of history, which should be understood correctly and never taken for granted.....
It should also be noted that Britain has always been notorious for serving as a refuge and a haven for all kinds and varieties of international troublemakers, mischief mongers and rascals. Not if it can be helped much longer........
Britain will be doing itself incalculable harm by taking in such scoundrels. It will also be increasing the list of charges against itself, that it will eventually have to face and answer for, when the time finally comes. And I believe that time is not that far down the line.....

(The British - and now their American proteges - have kept this rapacious class of elite bandits in power over this state and society. It must be a worthless society indeed, to allow this to happen. It is unified by "issues" such as the so-called Blasphemy Law and the Raymond Davis incident, but not by the plunder, misrule and dysfunctionality of its elites..... I can see the elite rascals grin cynically at what I have said, yet they should no longer be sure about their continued prosperity).

(Please refer to my earlier post, below in this blog, on the same subject: "Draft of an intended letter by the IRDC to the British FO - on the subject of British abetment of Pakistani corruption.....")


Rich Pakistanis planning to run to UK with their money

LONDON: Affluent Pakistanis are taking keen interest in migrating to Britain under an upcoming scheme designed to attract the rich and mighty from around the world.

The News can disclose that dozens of multi-millionaire Pakistanis have contacted - and even hired in some cases - leading immigration solicitors in London to prepare their cases for immigration on “super-fast track” once the relevant laws were implemented.

A source in the Home Office confirmed that several “high-net-worth Pakistanis” had evinced great interest in shifting to Britain under the new immigration scheme, which would be implemented in April.

The new scheme almost reverses the current stringent rules. It will provide special incentives to rich foreigners to invest in Britain and inject the much-needed cash into the recession-hit economy.

According to the scheme, rich foreigners who could bring in £10 million for investment would be eligible for a fast-tracked permanent residency within two years - unlike five years for all categories under current rules. Those with £5 million would qualify in three years and those with £1 million would get residency in five years.

The Conservative-Lib Dem coalition government faced growing criticism over cuts in the services sectors expenditures and job slashing. The number of jobless is about to hit 3 million as many companies are laying off staff on a daily basis. Thus, the flow of money from abroad under the immigration scheme would be a welcome boost to the stalled British economy.

The Conservatives promised at the time of the election in May last year that they would cut immigration from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands. The government is now planning to slash the number of foreign students to reduce net migration but this measure will hit the cash-strapped universities, dependant on international students.

The immigration clauses relating to the wealthy are undergoing a sea change, including the time period for gaining a permanent stay in Britain being drastically slashed. To qualify for a visa, an investor migrant will have to spend six months in the country instead of current requirement of nine months.

The individuals from countries such as India, Pakistan, Russia and those in the Middle East will take the opportunity offered by the new route to settle in Britain. There may not be a lot of Pakistanis eager to invest in the £10 million category but the number of those in £5 million and £1 million brackets could easily reach hundreds, the Home Office source said.

Talking to The News, a London-based solicitor confirmed that he was dealing with files of six rich families from Lahore and Karachi, who intended to migrate to Britain under the new scheme. “They are not happy with the unstable situation in Pakistan and Britain is a paradise for their capital. It’s clear to see why they want to move out,” he said, while speaking on condition of anonymity.

Another solicitor, who deals with a vast number of portfolio investors mainly from the Middle East, also confirmed that he had been approached by well-off Pakistani clients about the new immigration rules.

Fraz Butt of Saracens Solicitors, Marble Arch, London told The News: “Our Pakistani clients are showing substantial interest in migrating to Britain through the investment route as a consequence of the incentives on offer and the fast tracked timetable. Our Pakistani and Middle Eastern clients seek security for their investments and a stable environment for their children, which regrettably is not currently on offer in Pakistan. We are now servicing these clients and in turn assisting the government with its plans to enhance the austerity plans. It is truly a unique opportunity.”

A UK Border Agency spokesperson told The News: “The government has been clear that we want to attract the brightest and the best to help our economic recovery. We believe that entrepreneurs, investors, and people of exceptional talent have the most to offer in terms of driving economic growth. We are looking at ways to encourage investors to come to the UK and to make the application process more user-friendly; we will announce changes in due course.”


http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=32808&Cat=2&dt=2/24/2011

"Curiouser and curiouser......"

Attention is drawn to the parts I have highlighted in bold in this Pakistani newspaper editorial below. (Its URL is also given). It is said in various conspiracy-theory quarters, that the Americans deliberately allowed 9/11 to happen so that they could engineer and justify a conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia , which they are now deliberately prolonging- as an excuse to be physically and militarily near the planet's oil reserves, at the crucial period in history when it was known that these finite supplies would begin dwindling, given the hyper consumption of the Western capitalist societies......an international struggle would be precipitated over these, as he who controls the oil, remains on top and the winner....till recently, I dismissed this 9/11 theory as crazy nonsense. But now, with strange facts coming to the fore in the recent and bizarre Raymond Davis shooting case in Pakistan, I am forced to rethink this. It may be quite feasible. Look at the way the Western world is consuming everything. I mean, good living standards don't come out of thin air.

These are some of the seamy facts of life, that the ordinary and decent Western citizens just can't suspect; nor can they, in their naïve "decency", bring themselves to accept and acknowledge them - although the world is now rapidly losing its innocence in that regard......


Murder and espionage


So now we know – or think we know – just what it might have been that Raymond Davis and his fellow-spooks were up to. And it was nothing to do with diplomacy, at least not in the sense that it is normally understood. We also learn something about the freedom of the media in America because it was the media in the Land of the Free that quietly, and at the US government’s behest, kept knowledge of Davis’ linkage to the CIA from the American public and the rest of the world. However, the media in the rest of the world is under no such constraint and when the ‘The Guardian’ ran a story on Sunday that reported the link the cat was well and truly out of the bag. And what a cat! Far from being some lowly member of the ‘technical and administrative staff’ of the US diplomatic mission in Pakistan, it is now alleged that he was part of a covert CIA-led team that was engaged in the surveillance of militant groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP). Forensic examination of the equipment found in his possession is said to show that he was in phone contact with 33 Pakistanis, of whom 27 were from the TTP and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Neither organisation is known for peaceful or law abiding activity.(TTP is the Pakistani Taliban).

The reasons for this? We may never know with certitude, but informed speculation suggests that, contrary to the protestations of American officials that their staff would never engage in espionage or covert operations in Pakistan, this was indeed what he was busy with. The Washington Post goes so far as to detail that he was operating out of a ‘safe house’ and at the time of the incident he was conducting “area familiarisation” – basic surveillance – in order to better acquaint himself with the area he was working in. There is also speculation that his contacts with the TTP and LeT were more than mere ‘surveillance’. If this is anywhere close to the truth then we are getting a glimpse of the very dark and very dirty side of American foreign policy as it is played out here. Protestations loudly made about diplomatic immunity suddenly appear fatuous and facile, and those making them duplicitous and utterly deceitful. Bluntly put, we have been lied to. Moreover, we have been lied to by some very senior figures in the American administration who sought to both cover their tracks and extricate their man before cat and bag parted company. Whatever the legal outcome, whether Davis is tried for murder or espionage – with the latter probably unlikely – the coinage of American diplomacy in Pakistan has been debased to the point at which it is virtually worthless. And if the Americans ever again complain about us being wary of issuing their ‘technical and administrative assistants’ with visas, they can, to use the vernacular, go take a running jump.


http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=32534&Cat=8&dt=2/23/2011

The decadent opulence of the Army......

The Pakistan Army is the instrument of the ethnic Indian Punjabi majority Muslim community that comprises and "colours" Pakistan. It is also the main instrument through which the US-NATO Western combine controls the state entity known as Pakistan (though it is perhaps showing signs of going "rogue" in that respect, and dysfunctional in that role - since quite long)......The recent Raymond Davis incident has all but blown the cover off what was once a 60 year effective CIA-ISI master and slave cooperative relationship, that was otherwise an open secret in this society, but was never "openly" regarded. Now, however things are different in that respect......the whole arrangement is in sorry shreds and tatters.

Below is what a famous Pakistani Punjabi newspaper columnist Masood Hasan has to say about the opulent decadence that characterises this army's generals and their lifestyle:

"A friend who was asked to make a presentation to a gathering of top defenders ended up with a shrink because he believed he had been to heaven and returned to tell the tale. He blubbered on and on about what he saw, and claimed that the opulence and style was the kind that even kings could not have imagined. Six security guards alone inspected his car – not a 7 series BMW, but a humble 1300 cc local job – and himself. Another four starched men then took over and marched them through a series of lavishly appointed anterooms where another three awaited the guests. They were appropriately deposited in a room and sat twiddling their toes while in an adjoining room many more staffers tucked into a lavish spread. It was not someone’s birthday but just a routine middle-of-the-week activity. Finally they were “cleared” and led into a huge room straight out of a designer magazine. On getting used to the subdued and discreet lighting, they found a dozen and more sofas with one strategically placed separate from the rest where rested the big man, deep in comfort.

There were obviously no tables and upright chairs (who needs them?) and presentations were expected to be made from sofas to more sofas. Trophies and trappings of grandeur hung from the walls, and, although not in use, there seemed to be more air-conditioners than sofas. A posse of waiters slid about silently with highly polished silver trays bearing food fit for the gods. Sandwiches of a most delectable kind, hot, off-the-skewer kebabs, succulent samosas and patties with appropriate sauces and Ramsey Gordon styling, seductive pastries, assorted biscuits and confectionaries. Juices, light drinks, teas, coffees and lemon grass hot liquids were on call. While the hosts tucked in most enthusiastically, the visitors, clearly baffled by this mid-morning romp, politely declined to join in the Greek revelries. Their refusal was greeted with dismay. They were informed stiffly that “Elevenses were a part of the army’s traditions, and an honoured tradition, at that.” The presentation, when it finally took place, was a bit of a disaster because the food had played havoc with an attention span not quite the kind you’d find with Steve Jobs.

This was no special lair of VIPs but another mess, and there are dozens of them built in grounds where pilots can land 747 aircraft with eyes closed. These messes don’t look like they are part of Pakistan, and while in this case it happened to be the army, I personally know the same holds true of the air force and the navy. The Brits may have long gone but, by golly, their hallowed traditions are observed ritually across the length and breadth of Pakistan, and all their great virtues forgotten or simply discarded.

In civilian setups, the grandeur is not of the quality and class that is perfected by the armed forces but fairly close in many details. Such presentations are made to either a room full of dozy heads and people in an advanced stage of Alzheimer’s, or they are made to the big man himself who has no more than three seconds to hear all that you might have put together for the past four months. Once, during the days of Shauka Aziz (I have been told by his friends and fan club that he was an honest, industrious and humble man whose wife drove a battered car that could barely move; I stand corrected, and may God forgive me for judging the man so wrongly), a friend’s company was asked to travel to Islamabad and present in 30 minutes a comprehensive global plan that would overnight turn our tarnished image into rainbows. When they protested that such a fantasy was not possible – a suicide bomber had killed dozens that very morning – they were told to get on with it, or get out. They got out. The “image” caper set the country back by many millions and joyrides galore later. All was shoved under a bulging carpet – the dustbins were already overflowing. Life continued....."

The Pakistani state: Change - or be consumed by change!

I have edited and condensed this note from the important parts of a recent series of four lengthy newspaper articles - by well known Pakistani editor Mohammad Mallick - who wrote them as part of an in-depth news analysis over the space of several days, concerning the current situation that Pakistan now faces, and the inevitable change that it will bring..........and what is likely to happen in that event........he addressed it to the powers-that-be of this country.............it is a useful guide to the kind of situation - if not demise - we can expect for this country, soon......

From the Salman Taseer murder and the Raymond Davis issue, it can be seen that the hold of Pakistan's traditional rulers - the neocolonial, Western client regime that created the country 63 years ago, and has ruled it since - is now effectively over; for this dysfunction, its own corruption and debauched practices are responsible....

Below, Mohammad Mallick discusses the nature and prospects of the inevitable change now facing his country's doomed state establishment - and what its best current "players" can do about it to save their own skins....he identifies these two major players as being the Pakistan Army, and the Judiciary. He discusses the nature of the problem, and how these bastions of Pakistan's old order can react to try and save it from spiralling into anarchy.......

ISLAMABAD: The following situationer is based on exhaustive background interviews with all key power players, including the top civil and military leadership.

(1) OVERVIEW - Can PM Gilani simply reshuffle the deck and stand pat? The answer is an emphatic no. A few new faces may pop up like croakers after a summer rain but the trio that really needs changing will surely continue smirking at the nation. Whatever the ultimate complexion, emptying the cesspool of incompetence and corruption from one end and refilling it from the other offers no panacea for the fundamental problems being faced by the people, and the state itself. The time for such cosmetic touches a la transforming make-ups of ambitious starlets is long gone. Not that this ruling dispensation, seeped in perpetual denial, would have noticed. The need of the hour is for the Zardari-Gilani duo to conduct an honest catharsis of their own, which must lead to their own honest reinvention as selfless leaders. And since that appears to be an unlikely possibility, the next question: where are we going then in the coming weeks, or months? People are wondering if change is now inevitable.

But what change, how, and by whom? Can the absence of early general elections, pave the way for reluctant generals? These are but few of the myriad burning questions.

First, the harrowing economic scenario. That we are already on the precipice of financial ruin is an undeniable reality. Forget about tangible progress. We need to maintain a minimum annual average growth rate of 8% over the next twenty years just to maintain our present dismal standards of poverty, joblessness and economic stagnation. And what has been the annual average growth rate since the present government took over almost three years back? A lowly 2-3 percent. Billions of dollars have been taken out of the country by the wary and watchful investors and business houses. And what is coming in as direct foreign investment? Zilch! The bankruptcy of the national exchequer is only rivalled by the paucity of vision of our ruling leadership which is struggling with borrowed ideas and borrowed money. By September 2010, Pakistan’s public debt stood at Rs9.473 trillion.

Just try adding the zeros and you’ll have a fair idea of our collective zero future, lest drastic measures are taken. Will this trend change? Hardly, considering that during the period July-Sept alone our brilliant financial managers had borrowed a staggering Rs579 billion. Is the government betraying any signs of coming up with an ingenious indigenous independent economic plan? None. Any tangible demo of its intent to change its own free spending ostentatious misgoverning traits? None. Any chance of us being pleasantly shocked by government’s hitherto secret talent of conjuring out-of-box solutions to revive economy and dipped investor confidence? Not a chance in a million, or should one say Rs9.74 trillion......

(2) WHAT IS THE THINKING OF THE ARMY? - So what is the army thinking in all this, anyway? Economics. You read it right the first time, economics. Economy is the mantra of the top army brass. The army leadership is literally scared stiff of the economic scenario and even more so considering that the governor state bank, the finance minister, and other official economic mandarins have been painfully honest in their off the record presentations to the top generals. The armed forces are finding it extremely tough to even finance their standard standing-army operations, let alone go for upgrading their capacity in terms of men or material. And we are not even looking at the crushing burden of fighting a full-scale war both within the country and on our western borders while keeping a tight vigil on the Eastern front.

Their biggest fear is that Pakistan would be rendered irrelevant vis-‡-vis India purely by its economic downslide and that ultimately we could even end up in a position of some former Soviet republics, which were forced to pander their nuclear assets to the west in lieu of the badly needed bread money. On the internal front too, lack of development and rehabilitation in the war zones against terrorism is a big worry for the Khakis. They blame seriously flawed priorities of government as well as the monetary crunch self-induced by mis-governance and corruption. On Pakistan-United States relations, Rawalpindi has serious doubts about the civilian leadership’s ability to even comprehend the enormity of the issue with its bilateral, regional, and global implications let alone the political leadership’s acumen to handle it prudently.

The army commanders are keeping a close watch on everything, starting from big ticket items like Afghanistan and economy to relatively way smaller issues. Just to give one example, a very high powered call was recently made to a baffled MD PIA, who was asked to explain the controversial deal involving selling PIA routes to another airline (to share an aside, his argument didn’t go down well with the caller). But the real alarming part is the overall Khaki assessment of the democratic and civilian assets required for pulling the country out of its current morass.

In the current khaki perception, “there is no hope of betterment from the current leadership”, to quote someone who really matters. And this judgment covered virtually all the national stature politicians. Having gone over the latest political developments including the 45-day deadlines, interim agendas and the government feigning to start reforming its ways etc, I asked this direct question from an extremely pertinent general, “Do you think the current situation will improve and the government will actually reinvent itself? Can you name anyone out of Gilani, Zardari, Nawaz, Asfandyar, or anyone else in the parliament who you think offers any grounds for optimism? None, pat came the response. Does that mean you will have to ultimately step in? was my second question. This time the response came after a long pause, “Army interventions have not really worked in the past and the region’s situation is already very complicated. And for a country that is so heavily reliant on foreign funding, it is not so easy to go against internationally accepted norms etc. No we do not want to have any direct role in the running of the government but the security and interests of the State must also be protected. I think the army would support any democratic alternatives that help steer the country out of this economic and political stalemate”.

When asked if this answer tacitly implied that the army favoured the much talked about concept of a clean ‘professional’ national government fully answerable to the apex court, the only response was a knowing smile. By the way, they may not have much to say for his political acumen, but Imran Khan surely has a lot of senior officers admiring his financial integrity and boldness (read: anti-Americanism) on issues like war on terrorism and his “groom-able leadership qualities”. But how could the Supreme Court approve such a dispensation that visibly has no constitutional backing? One wonders!

(3) THE ARMY AND THE JUDICIARY ARE WHAT MATTER NOW, IN THE END - In the black and white world of the khakis, the buck stops at the desk of the Chief of the Army Staff.........There is extreme institutional concern over the alarming economic and political situation but it would be premature and imprudent to suggest that the Khakis are raring to play a power role to the total exclusion of political elements. But having said that there is clear evidence too of growing institutional pressure to “do something” and of “saving Pakistan first and systems later” on the man already feeling the additional weight of an additional three-year term in office. The kind are presenting this as a God given opportunity to do great things for the army and the country, and the unkind as the price for holding his silence and watching impassively, as the country slides deeper into one despair after another...........

Not a single fundamental has changed nor has any serious attempt been made to address the country’s economic and law and order woes. It is clear to keen strategic observers that the government, the PML-N, and other political power players are indulging in shadow boxing as per rules of engagement specifically designed to ensure mutual sustenance and prolonging of their cushioned stay in power.

The time for games is over. The economy is in ruins. National mood is of resignation and despondency. Food prices are shooting up as much as 20% in one month. Poor are no longer just getting poorer but desperate and hungry. The angry youth is like a volcano waiting to erupt at the slightest provocation, which could come any day. Who knows, even the apprehended unconditional release of Raymond Davis could prove a lit fuse. It’s time for politicians to display a sincerity of purpose and cause a change, or be ready to be consumed by the one coming.

Two viewpoints prevail in terms of strategic thinking. One favours the wait and sees policy which essentially means to allow maximum room to politicians to fix things and when every option stands exhausted to only then help sort matters as the proverbial white knights. The overriding fear, however, appears to be that that point has already been reached and in the event of any more inordinate long delay, the lack of credibility of the rulers will have perpetually isolated us in the comity of nations and even worse, the petering economy may suffer an irreversible stall and thus spell immediate disaster for democracy, institution, and the country itself.

Under the present trying circumstances, the power players would ignore to their own peril the personalities of the two gentlemen, who have personally rejuvenated and reshaped their respective institutions.

One institution is led by a man of impeccable credibility who has already shown that he won’t be taking any prisoners in his open war against corruption and abuse of public office. Neither is he afraid of stepping in whenever the corrupt and incompetent executive abdicated its responsibilities. The other has as its commander, an accomplished strategist who has the patience to reach a chosen destination, on a route of his own charting, in the timing of his own choice. Referring to India he once said that his own preparations were based on the capacity of the other and not on professed intentions. Islamabad takes note.

The chief justice of Pakistan and the Chief of the Armed Forces may live in two separate cities, running two separate worlds, but remain inseparably linked by the common thread of national interest. Are circumstances being created by the criminal follies of our political classes where one may be forced by the force of circumstances to interpret, and the other to implement? The answer, and possibly the change, may come a lot sooner than we all think.

The dire situation Pakistan is now in...

I have culled, put together and edited various writings and news analyses and writings below, to form a complete picture of our present predicament, and where it will likely lead to, in the very near future....time has run out for the mess called Pakistan.......

At a high-level meeting last Thursday, the president and the prime minister have reviewed what appears to be a grim economic situation, agreed on tightening austerity measures for the government and bringing the wealthy into a tighter tax net. They would do well to start by setting an example themselves, by making their tax returns public, and asking other party members to do so as well. We all know that the taxes paid by politicians are in most cases low – sometimes well below the figure paid by the average salaried individual, who has little choice in the matter. As a result, taxes from those on salaries exceed those paid by some of the wealthiest in our land. The warnings of impending financial collapse that have recently been given by the finance team should not be taken lightly. There is evidence everywhere of just such a disaster looming ahead, somewhere not very far away. We all know of people taking money out of the country for fear of a melt down at home. A general lack of confidence in the government’s ability to handle matters makes matters worse. The austerity measures, even if they are effectively put in place now, come too late and may fail to make any kind of real difference.

We wonder if the issue of agricultural tax came up during the high-level meeting. This would seem to offer one means of bringing in the additional resources that are so badly needed. The tax should have been put in place many years ago. But given the scale of the crisis we face, it is all the more vital that this happen now, before we lurch into an even darker financial nightmare. One of the reasons why the tax has not been imposed, and other measures such as land reforms have also not been carried out, is the fact that our parliament is made up, chiefly, of land-owners. Many of those who sit in our assemblies hold many acres of land. They are hardly likely to favour either taxation or major reform, and this means a vital source of revenue for the state, as well as a means to improve the lot of tens of thousands of people, remains shut off to us as a result of selfishness on the part of the ruling elite.

The result of all this is that we have a bankrupt state but a well-off elite. Whenever the issue of bankruptcy is raised, there is a cry for reducing state expenditure. Actually, if defence and public-sector enterprises – which should have been privatised a long time ago – are excluded, our structure of governance costs are among the lowest in the world.

Our state’s bankruptcy is thus not an expenditure issue but a revenue issue. We have survived so far on dole from the global community either by making ourselves strategically relevant or scaring the world into helping us. If this comes to an end and we are really confronted with the consequences of bankruptcy, social upheaval is bound to occur.

What would an economic collapse, such as the one feared here - look like? In short, it would begin by us defaulting on our international debt that would have massive consequences for our foreign trade. The currency would go into free fall, with galloping inflation. Food shortages would become a real possibility for a section of the people. Oil imports would be affected, disrupting our transportation system.

Our elites have thus far got away with excuses of "defending national interest". This is a lie in patently audacious contravention to what is truly going on - as any damned fool will be able to fathom.....but it seems, that our populace is worse than damned fools even.......having allowed all this and neither said nor done anything; they respond to Islamic fundamentalism - when a loony like Mumtaz Qadri commits a brutal murder; and yet they have nothing to complain when their very flesh is being consumed.........what is the worth of such wretches? Defending and enhancing “national interest” in the murky world of Third World parliamentary politics, with secret military agencies and foreign powers jostling for resources, influence or space, is a tall order. Neither Zardari, nor Nawaz Sharif, nor the centralised, first-past-the-post political system in vogue, is equipped to do the job. But that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

The costs of the deals struck with the IMF have been heavy. The prices of utilities have gone up, people are pressed harder than ever and there is no sign of an economic upturn that could boost growth, generate jobs and possibly help people manage just a little better. Now we have even worse news. According to a report in this newspaper, the government will be raising power tariffs by two or three per cent each month - a process that will by June 2011 result in an increase of somewhere between 19.4 and 30.4 per cent. Over the last 30 months, tariffs have already gone up by a whopping 63.6 per cent. The incomes brought in by almost everyone in the country have meanwhile shrunk in real terms given the rate of inflation in the prices of vital goods. The degree of suffering has been intense.

It is to be asked how – in times when parents kill children they cannot feed, beggars increase in number along many streets and desperate families beg for food – any government can inflict such torture on people. Among the worst-affected of course are those too proud to beg. It is of course still more ironic that the measures come from a setup that claims to stand for the poor and was elected on this slogan. The impact of the power-tariff rise will be crippling. Independent groups should make an assessment of how families will manage. Will they cut back on food? On education for children? On healthcare? It is likely of course that all these vital areas and others will be affected. The government needs to state what is expects people to do. Its main responsibility, after all, is to serve the people. From the opposition too we need far more strident questions in parliament. The power-tariff rise is a huge issue. It should not be left only to the media to highlight its significance and the manner in which it will influence the welfare of millions of people who even now struggle to survive.

THE WAY THE AMERICAN GLOBAL COOKIE IS SET TO CRUMBLE.......

It is easy to see now - the way in which the cookie of the American global order will soon crumble: (1) the Arab uprising will soon sweep away the longstanding and crucial underpinnings of the American world order in most, if not all its territories; (2) the collapse of the old neocolonial elite regime of the Pakistani state is imminent, as it is already in a state of advanced decrepitude and dissolution - and is under insurgent attack also..... the popular reaction to the current "Raymond Davis affair" may hasten this process, or some other unforeseen political or economic event or situation may do so. But like a termite infested doorframe, it is ready anytime to crumble at a mere flick - whatever that may be. Apart from Israel, Pakistan is America's main stooge in the world - a Muslim stooge albeit, and one which is far more important than other US Muslim stooges like Saudi Arabia or Egypt; and (3) NATO is all but defeated in Afghanistan, and is struggling to maintain its daily grip there after a decade of fighting.....so the situation is really grave. Just as Afghanistan bled the USSR to death, it appears that it will have the same effect on its rival, and now lone, global power......

And last but not least - that isn't to mention the fact that the likelihood of another, more damning and "final" global economic collapse might just be months away, according to many experts. Oil is again increasing in price, and the US military engagements since 2001 have proved to be its longest war in history, and the costliest too........very few are aware that the $20 Trillion spent on this war so far has all but bankrupted the US.

The American order is just the pinnacle of the larger European political and economic supremacy that has lorded it over the world for the past 500 years now, dominated by England......reasonably speaking, the American Global Order is basically a latter day extension of the British Empire; it is a new British Empire that rose after the old declined from 1945. And so when it goes, the larger European order it actually represents will also follow suit. For all intents and purposes, I think that its time is now over. We must keep in mind the good things it has bequeathed mankind, and transfer that legacy effectively to the better new order in human affairs that will soon replace it.

TWO DECADES OF AN AMERICAN GLOBAL ORDER.......

Twenty years ago, a "Desert Storm" presaged the ultimate American ascendancy in the world. Right now, another "Desert Storm" is raging throughout the Arab world's societies, and it seems to be clearly pointing to the downfall of that American world order and its underpinnings. That is good too, for what did this order bring humanity, but untold greed, corruption and chaos? Twenty years ago, mankind was regaled with the glorious tidings of the birth of a new world, a Garden of Eden where "freedom and free enterprise" would rule the roost - after the fall of the drab and dreary monolith of the "Evil Empire"of Soviet Communism, that threatened the future of mankind with the worst form of slavery....and nuclear holocaust.....perhaps, but two decades later, we now really know the true identity of the actual evil empire straddling the globe a bit too well, only.....and where have we got to? Yes, "freedom" does rule the world, but in the "free-for-all" sense, it is evident.......

True, we did get the internet during this period - that is enabling me to share this - as well as being blessed with innumerable other technologies..........but we also got a generation of loutish youth, who write in the moronic SMS texting style. And we got another anomaly, a new type of terror - Islamic "stateless" terror, with a mentality from the age of the camel, but proficient in the use of nothing but the latest technology and gizmos. Returning to the internet, we now also have a profusion of those unfit people to whom it has given a voice, but who would be better off not having one. It has only increased the clamour, not the quality of the content. The same can be said about the glut of information deluging our overworked and buzzing brains on the internet and on cable TV channels. Old social order has been destroyed, yet nothing new has replaced it. Poor societies are still floundering in the ashes of their past. Manners and form have been decimated and replaced by cynicism and a devil-may-care informality prevails, hanging like a pall over everything. It is truly a dark age.

Like America that typifies it, this is an age of extremes too. This era could have been the gateway to an unprecedented new global human utopia, had America behaved properly, maturely and benevolently. There was a lot of anticipation way back in 1991. But I suppose, we expected too much........

But such outcomes can not be expected of a society that is based on the shopkeeper ethic - a linear process of increasing material output and consumption. Since the rise of the USA to absolute world dominion, we have seen nothing but a runaway spiral of increasing corruption - particularly in countries like Pakistan, not to talk of the world over. Over the past two decades, corruption has become a way of life in Pakistan - proliferating and "blooming" as never before. The cultures and societies of races like the Pashtuns - which already have criminality and lawlessness latent in their character - have also reached "full flower" in this period, having taken advantage as never before of the indiscriminate and irresponsible empowerment American Globalism and its disorderly practices have afforded them. If America were really the benevolent guardian of the world and civilisation as it poses to be, one of its first responsibilities would be to deal in an effective and efficient manner of whatever is required, regarding the kind of threat posed to international stability and wellbeing by the likes of delinquent and dysfunctional vermin like the Pashtuns......

So where will this disastrous tempo lead to? Surely, it can not last forever. And how near are we to the overall crash?......The more such vast power is abused and misused, the greater the damage incurred and the more horrendous the consequences for all involved. It seems that America wants to arrogate global leadership and control without the moral responsibility that goes with it; and that it might profit from deliberately inspired disorder in some cases....both are criminal suppositions, entailing the heaviest of consequences.

I believe that the end of this system is nigh, and that will be the most horrifyingly spectacular of all. It is too late to talk about amends now; this is the time of the onset of consequences...............

***Draft of an intended letter by the IRDC to the British FO - on the subject of British abetment of Pakistani corruption.....***

This draft has been composed by Arif Hasan Akhundzada, at the behest of HI&RH Prince Nicholas De Vere von Drakenberg, Sovereign Head of the Imperial and Royal Dragon Court (IRDC), for him to send to the British Foreign Office.

The times in which the world lives at present have never been as crucial or consequential for all concerned - in such a dire way as now......it is incumbent on those who have (been given) the power and ability, to put it to the best use not only for the good of all, but their own good too, and their survival......the time of collective responsibility is upon us, this time whether we like it or not, as the circumstances of the global village now ensure that there can be no escape or insulating oneself from the hard facts that one doesn't like.

I am writing to bring up with you the subject of UK-Pakistan relations. They have always been of central importance for obvious reasons, and that importance has assumed critical proportions in the present epoch. As you will know, the situation in Pakistan has been in a state of constant and terminal social, political and economic decline, especially for the past 25 years. The main reason for this is perceived to be the endemic and all pervasive culture of corruption engendered by the active involvement of the Pakistani Establishment and State in the Afghan "jihad"- at the behest of its Anglo-American patrons and their perceived geopolitical interests. As Newton's Third Law puts it, the reactions of this involvement have not only brought Pakistani society to the verge of a spectacular and dangerous ending - which I fear we will soon be witness to, but that these effects will also reach British (and Western) shores...in fact, they already have......

It is a known fact, that Pakistan is a successor state to the British Empire in India, and as such, the ties between the two peoples and governments at all tiers and levels are closer than those of many other bilateral relationships. In this context, I as the Dragon Prince, naturally have an abiding interest in these matters not only to the extent that they impinge upon the world and its future as a whole in a most direct manner in every sense, but that a key member and functionary from my court Arif Hasan Akhundzada also hails from the area - and he has not only been struggling against the negative consequences of the abovementioned improprieties as a main objective of his life, but he is also half-British and half-Pakistani and as such, is directly concerned. Being a Pashtun on his father's side and a resident of the Peshawar area, it can be said that he resides right in the centre of this geopolitical whirlpool.

Of special interest to me is the fact that Britain still plays they role of patron and mentor to the Pakistani ruling class - closer than America even, given Britain's 100 year colonial rule in the area of India now comprising Pakistan. It is a key aid donor, and it is also a known fact that Pakistan survives only because of foreign aid, of which the Western portion is the greatest - and among which Britain's contribution is crucial. But one of the reasons for Pakistan's terminal impasse is that this aid is almost entirely robbed by its rulers, and most of it finds its way back again to Britain - in the form of secret or discrete bank accounts, capital investments, luxury flats, palatial mansions, automobiles, objets d'art and so on. H.M Government and its intelligence service isn't that ludicrously naive not to know where this money comes from and how; the fact that it prefers to look the other way, nay, rather abet in this unsavoury business and also harbour, protect and defend those involved by providing asylum and succour - will not only have negative geopolitical repercussions, but is in very simple moral terms, reprehensible and criminal to say the least. It has led to degeneration of Pakistani society, which is now primed to explode - with far reaching and horrifyingly devastating consequences for that region, Europe and the world as a whole. Although those developments have now gone very far and are in the advanced stages now, it is never too late to firmly put a stop to cooperating with the corruption of the doomed Pakistani ruling class, and take measures to rectify, alleviate and heal as much of the damage that has already been done........failing which, Britain may soon find itself paying a price which it will regret very heavily indeed, yet be powerless to do anything about.